“Franco-Ukrainian cooperation in air defence is probably the one with the most potential in Europe”
Aurélien Duchêne is a professor at the Catholic University of Lyon, LCI columnist
TRIBUNE. For Anton Naychuk and Aurélien Duchêne, France would have everything to gain from allowing the licensed anti-missile systems to produce SAMP/T to Ukraine, which in turn could help it in low-cost anti-drone technologies.
At a time when Ukraine may be inflicting its worst setbacks on Russia since the fall of 2022, will its European supporters like France waste this opportunity?
Indeed, the Ukrainians have managed to stabilize the situation on the front and resume the initiative in some directions. Their new advances in the field of drones make it possible to strike ever further and harder within Russian territory, inflicting considerable damage to the enemy war machine. And thanks to the developments of its new weapons giant Firepoint, Ukraine is now producing and using its own long-range missiles, counterbalancing what was one of the main Russian advantages.
But the main problem that Ukraine still faces is the lack of missile defenses. France has announced that it will deliver more of Aster 30, the only European missile capable of carrying out these missions. But it can only deliver very limited quantities of them, unlike their American equivalent, the Patriots, who are also the only system capable today of effectively countering Russian ballistic missiles.
Russia is actively exploiting this Ukrainian defense flaw, terrorizing the civilian population by massive and deadly bombings. While stockpiles delivered to Ukraine are running out, Russia is increasing its missile production. The situation will become all the more critical in the run-up to winter, during which time the Russians will try to further deteriorate the Ukrainian energy sector and make major cities, including the capital Kyiv, unlivable.
Ukrainian diplomacy is actively looking for something to strengthen its air defense, but the possibilities are limited. The United States has exhausted large reserves due to the war in the Middle East, and negotiations on the production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine or on the territory of another European country constitute a long and complex process, without immediate result.
However, France can play a key role in unblocking the situation.
Most European Patriot-using countries des Patriothave only limited stocks, such as Poland whose aid to Ukraine is hampered by domestic political considerations. One country stands out: Greece.
Athens has six Patriot batteries, which is one of the largest fleets, with substantial missile stockpiles. Stocks, some of which could significantly help Ukraine protect its civilian population during the peaks of bombing linked to the arrival of winter. Ukraine has already asked Greece to obtain Patriot batteries or, at the very least, missiles for its own batteries. The Greek authorities are procrastinating, in order to give legitimate priority to their own territorial defence.
This is where France can intervene.
There is a bilateral security treaty between the two countries, renewed this April, which provides for an obligation of military assistance in the event of armed aggression against one of the two states. In this context, Greece could provide Ukraine with part of its missile reserves, under the guarantee of France to provide additional protection of Greek airspace.
Such a solution would be a concrete illustration of the implementation of the “coalition of volunteers”, and the progress of a European defence. While Ukraine would immediately receive something to better protect its population and its war effort, France would strengthen its influence as a security provider.
The other area where France has a decisive card to play is that of the defense industry.
On the one hand, France is at the forefront of missile defense, with the development of a new generation of SAMP/T systems that will be able to do even better than the American Patriots. But its production capacity remains constrained. On the other hand, Ukraine, which does not have this type of technology, has massive and fast production capacities thanks to its war economy.
France and Italy have every interest in allowing Ukraine to produce their SAMP/T anti-aircraft systems and Aster missiles under license, along with the SCALP/Storm Shadow long-range missiles. Out of reciprocity, Ukraine could transfer its low-cost drone technologies to France, which would significantly and rapidly strengthen French capabilities.
Franco-Ukrainian cooperation in air defense is probably the one with the most potential in Europe. It was also in Paris that the project for a Euro-Ukrainian anti-missile system FREYA was recently launched.
Meanwhile, the number of civilian casualties continues to increase every month in Ukraine, which has high hopes for the determination and solidarity of its European partners. Especially when Russian allies, such as North Korea, are supplying their ballistic missiles to allow Russian troops to further exploit Ukrainian shortages.
Only if Russia no longer has any advantage that it will be forced to enter into peace talks, and will be better discouraged from attacking other countries. Only if European nations like France strengthen their cooperation with Ukraine, especially at this crucial moment, will the conditions for a lasting peace on the continent be met.
*Anton Naychuk is Ukrainian, director of the East European Council, a Warsaw-based think tank and consultancy, specializing in the analysis of geopolitical, security and economic issues in Eastern Europe and strengthening relations between Poland and Ukraine.
*Aurélien Duchêne is a professor at the Catholic University of Lyon, LCI columnist, he is the co-author of L’Europe et ses armées (Eyrolles editions).