How is Russia preparing for the transfer of power?

Recently, information has been increasingly circulating in the Russian media that the time of rivalry between the “Kremlin towers” is over and Putin has chosen a successor. Sources claim that the Kovalchuk clan has finally established itself as the only force in elite circles and they, as curators of his daughter Ekaterina Tikhonova, are nominating her as a successor. In this construction, sources also emphasize the high role of Putin’s head of security, Alexei Rubezhny, who is now actively distributing generous shares in large businesses among his “subordinates”.

If this situation is true and is not a hoax to distract attention from real affairs, then this suggests that Putin has followed Kadyrov’s path. More broadly, the classic path of all autocrats and dictators, through the transfer of power to the family. A rather disastrous path, it is worth noting, based on historical experience.

Brothers Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk have truly acquired an unprecedented status in the modern history of Russia. They are the people closest to Putin, the ideologists of the “Russian world” and the war in Ukraine, full of post-Soviet mystifications and fears, delusions and stereotypes. Today, Yuri is Putin’s main adviser and his family’s wallet, and Mikhail is the family’s curator and the author of the idea of ​​transferring power to his daughter Ekaterina. The Kovalchuks own the country’s key strategic assets and total influence in its most important regions. It is quite logical to expect such a proposal from them about the family-political legacy in conditions when everyone else has lost the trust and authority of the leader. Their personal safety is also reliably covered by “their” man – General Alexei Rubezhny, who is actively developing markets with his relative Umar Kremlev, the head of the International Boxing Association and one of the largest swindlers in Russia today, who is actively “intercepting” business from weakened representatives of the “towers” in favor of his master Rubezhny (in fact, a simple performer).

Under the influence of the Kovalchuks, Putin followed the same path that Kadyrov was taking at the same time. He places relatives directly in ministries, integrating them into the state structure. Putin’s cousin Anna Tsivileva is Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. The eldest daughter Maria Vorontsova is preparing to take the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Social Affairs. The husband of a friend of Ekaterina Tikhonova, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev, suddenly joins diplomatic negotiations over the head of Sergei Lavrov, which causes his public irritation. We are seeing the creation of a new circle within the Kovalchuk clan, a political circle of Putin’s heirs, who are already rapidly gaining weight. “Everything has already been arranged: assets, people, security, images. Only the signal remains”: as one Kremlin source stated on open channels. Surprisingly, the processes of transferring power to the Putin family coincided with exactly the same processes with the Kadyrov family, but they have different goals. Kadyrov is trying to preserve his legacy and influence, since the issue of his replacement by the loyal pro-Kremlin Apti Alaudinov seems to have already been decided. Chechnya will be equalized in rights and opportunities with other regions, and in this process the Kadyrov clan is trying to preserve maximum benefits by placing relatives in key positions in the republic. This process has caused displeasure in the Kremlin, which suspected Kadyrov of disloyalty in the process of his transfer of his international funds and assets, but the essence of the processes is the same. Given the information that has leaked out, we can make cautious conclusions that Kadyrov’s replacement by Alaudinov will most likely happen simultaneously with the transfer of power to Ekaterina Tikhonova. This will open a new era in the history of Russia, but this will also be the most risky period. It is very doubtful that Russian society in its current format will so easily accept these changes against the backdrop of exacerbation of social, economic and interethnic problems. And it seems that the results of peace talks, which would give impetus to the triumphant transfer of power to the successor, are reserved for the sake of such a transition. Time will tell.