Is Ukraine losing an important ally? What new sociology from Poland showed

A rather revealing sociological study was published in Poland the other day. It demonstrates the specifics of changes in Polish perception of issues that directly concern Ukraine, and some of them are of strategic importance for Ukrainian interests.

Is Poland against Ukraine’s accession to the EU?

The study was conducted by Opinia24 for RMF24. Particular attention should be paid to the sociological indicators of support for Ukraine’s European integration: 52% of Polish citizens oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU, while only 33% support such a prospect. The situation is quite problematic and gives reason for reflection. Read more in the exclusive column for Channel 24.

First, the opposition political forces in Poland received an additional signal – within the framework of the 2027 election campaign, the theme of “Ukraine in the EU” can be actively used. The “Confederation”, and along with it “PiS”, will continue to actively criticize the government of Donald Tusk for any steps towards Ukraine – in particular, support for the opening of negotiation clusters.

Secondly, the opposition still retains primacy in mobilizing its own electorate around issues of Ukrainian politics.

Let’s take as a basis the 2025 presidential campaign, which demonstrated a severe social split in Poland – in fact, 50/50%. It can be assumed that opponents of Ukraine’s accession to the EU dominate among voters who voted for Karol Nawrocki in the second round, and this can be seen in sociology.

On the other hand, the electorate that supported the candidate from the government coalition is not so consolidated around the idea of ​​Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and not everyone realizes that with the correct organization of interaction, Polish-Ukrainian cooperation will only strengthen both countries and meet Warsaw’s strategic interests.

Only 33% in support is an indirect argument for such thoughts.

That is why the Polish government needs to conduct a decisive information and political campaign within the country to demonstrate consistency in the previously chosen strategy and convince its own voters of its prospects. The basis of rapprochement should be economic policy, where both sides should take steps towards it.

Can Poland really stop aid to Ukraine due to historical politics?

44% of respondents believe that Poland should suspend military aid to Ukraine due to the UPA issue, compared to 41% who are convinced of the need to continue.

Such statistics give reason to believe that previous declarations of similar content by the potential PiS candidate for prime minister, Przemysław Czarnek, are not just an emotional statement.

Although later the president of the political force, Jarosław Kaczyński, somewhat criticized the candidate he nominated for the prime minister’s seat, such sociology increases the risks that PiS will still use this topic to intercept the electorate of other right-wing forces, and especially the “Confederation of the Polish Crown”.

The public position of Tusk and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski shows that the government is aware of the importance of Ukraine’s support for Poland’s security and strategic interests. Therefore, we can count on the government’s consistency and willingness to reject the opposition’s marginal proposals to close the hub in Jasienka, stop funding Starlink, or something similar. In particular, given that Ukraine’s victory in the war is important for Polish security, no matter how hard the radicals try to refute this thesis.

However, it is difficult to predict the actions of the new government after the 2027 elections. Especially if it is formed with the participation of PiS and the Confederation, whose leaders – Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Menzen – are among those 44% of the population.

For objectivity, it is worth noting that, in addition to logistics, Poland’s security or financial support is currently focused mostly on participation in collective EU mechanisms. For example, in Poland’s commitment to the €90 billion aid package, which is being attracted by the EU through joint borrowings guaranteed by the EU budget for Ukraine’s needs, which are then to be compensated by Russia’s frozen assets.

Direct financial non-repayable aid instruments have been reduced to a minimum, as has the transfer of military equipment. Especially compared to the first years of the full-scale invasion, when the unity of the government and the opposition within the country allowed Poland to take key positions in meeting Ukraine’s needs.

What will happen to the attitude of Poles towards Ukrainians?

The politicization of the topic of Ukraine has its consequences, which are reflected in sociology – 36% of citizens stated that their attitude towards Ukrainians had worsened, and only 3% – about improvement, while 54% remained unchanged in their attitude.

The trend of increasing negative perception is quite clear, and with the further struggle of right-wing forces for the voter – cases of xenophobic manifestations will only become more frequent.

The previous lack of a tough reaction, and in some places direct or indirect playing into dangerous tendencies, lead to the activation of various marginal groups of criminal or nationalist orientations, which allow themselves acts of violence against Ukrainian citizens, which will certainly cause a negative reaction at the EU level.

In the future, such aggression can easily spread to other social categories, including the Poles themselves, who have different views, lead a different lifestyle or are guided by different values.

The recent case of the beating of a Ukrainian family in Wroclaw is much more than the last warning bell. It is already a manifestation of a serious and deep problem, the solution of which must be sought urgently.

If Ukrainian citizens violate the law in Poland, this is one case. It is accompanied by liability and deportation of persons of draft age to Ukrainian territory. Here our positions are common, and Ukrainian society also has a negative attitude towards fellow citizens who resort to criminal acts abroad or travel there illegally in luxury cars.

However, acts of violence against people who are legally in Poland, respect Polish traditions and law, and also stimulate the economy with their active participation in it are not acceptable. Ukraine will expect tough and fair measures of a comprehensive nature, as well as steps to prevent it.

In a state governed by the rule of law, negative attitudes cannot materialize into violence.

How will relations between Poland and Ukraine develop further?

In bilateral relations between Ukraine and Poland, there are still enough objective problems that temporarily receded into the background after consolidation around a common threat, but have been systematically coming to the fore in recent years. However, it will be impossible to resolve them as long as they are exacerbated by the politicization of history and the radicalization of public sentiment in the interests of individual political forces. An effective communication format that will prevent destructive decisions is important.

Further attempts by individual Polish politicians to consolidate voters by criticizing Ukraine may bring temporary political success, but will lead to strategic defeat in the long term.

The conflict between the government, the president, and the opposition in Poland will gain momentum. In the near future, the Polish government team risks facing a choice:

• to follow the chosen course of developing strategic relations with Ukraine, which was actively supported in the first half of the year and formed the basis of Tusk’s foreign policy concept;
• or to minimize interaction, put important issues on hold, and reduce everything to the basics – the functioning of the logistics hub and the demonstration of political solidarity in the confrontation with Russian aggression.

Choosing the second option will also pose problems for Tusk. Then the primacy in shaping the agenda will be successfully seized by the opposition, and on a larger scale the mistakes of the first round of the 2025 presidential campaign will be partially repeated, when attempts to win over the opponents’ electorate to their side resulted in failure.

Therefore, it can be assumed that the priority for the current parliamentary majority should remain the development of the Polish-Ukrainian union – especially in the areas of economy and security.

There are still enough prospects for the implementation of such plans, but they require subjectivity and the correct and timely setting of strategic priorities.

For Ukraine, Poland is also called upon to remain a strategic partner. In the conditions of a “war of attrition”, when the enemy is trying to use all means to weaken Ukraine’s support in Europe, it is in Ukraine’s interests to have reliable and stable relations with its neighbors, especially with Poland. Even when the Ukrainian leadership successfully establishes interaction with other European countries, creates conditions for expanding partnership with the United States and actively consolidates itself in the status of an important military-technical force, constructive Polish-Ukrainian relations only benefit from joint work in the security and economic spheres.