Risks of a new political confrontation between Ukraine and Poland
Despite the recent positive trends in the development of bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and Poland in May – a visit by a high-level Polish delegation to Kyiv to discuss economic issues, an agricultural summit in Warsaw, and an expert meeting of historians supported by the governments of both countries – another escalation is brewing in the information field with as yet unclear consequences.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s statement “as long as we argue over the past, who else will win the future” should probably form the basis of bilateral relations. Unfortunately, recent events indicate otherwise and not everyone is ready to be guided by such a rational approach.
The topic of Ukrainian history has once again become the object of politicization, which will become increasingly widespread as the Polish parliamentary elections approach in the fall of 2027.
If complex historical issues are not resolved outside the political process, the situation will only continue to move in a destructive direction, jeopardizing prospects that are beneficial to both countries.
If Karol Nawrocki’s initiative regarding the need to revoke the Order of the White Eagle from Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not find consolidation within Polish society, then what can we say about Ukrainian citizens on whose behalf it was received by the Ukrainian President. Especially if the actions of the presidential office carry hidden political motives.
Given that after all procedures, the final signature on the decision to revoke the award will remain with the Prime Minister, a contradictory situation arises: the last word in the said act should remain with Donald Tusk, who did not even come close to making such a proposal, but procedurally it is he who should deprive the President and the Ukrainian people of the awards.
If Karol Nawrocki aims to revoke the award, then it seems logical to turn to his predecessor – Andrzej Duda, who honored Ukrainian partners for their courage and steadfastness in deterring Russian aggression. Should we assume that the current president considers the actions of his colleague, who was elected to two terms as a member of the PiS, to be erroneous?
Indirectly and procedurally, similar actions resemble the situation in 2023: then the Minister of Agriculture Robert Telus on the eve promoted the expansion of Ukrainian grain imports to Polish markets and transit, which was profitable from a commercial point of view, and then PiS suddenly recognized this as a significant problem and blocked the border when they saw this as expedient in the context of the political situation.
Then our countries were on the verge of transitioning relations to a new qualitative level of strategic partnership, adopting progressive intergovernmental decisions beneficial to both sides, but everything came to a halt due to the politicization of contradictions.
It is worth noting that today’s situation is increasingly getting out of control in the information space and even beyond historical issues, covering an increasingly wider range of harmful populist narratives.
For example, the traditional agents of influence of Russian propaganda in Poland are already actively using this situation for their own purposes. Representatives of the “Confederation of the Polish Crown” party openly declare the need to stop aid to Ukraine and even block hubs for the supply of military-technical products under traditional Russian narratives: “Ukraine is dragging Poland into a war that the Poles do not need.”
Russian instruments of influence and mass campaigns aimed at destabilizing and weakening bilateral relations have been activated on social networks.
That is why, undoubtedly, the Russian side will remain the beneficiary of the aggravation of the confrontation between Poland and Ukraine both in the strategic perspective and in the short term – let us recall that at the end of June a forum on the restoration of Ukraine will be held in Gdansk, which risks taking place against the background of a difficult political situation, which will significantly limit the potential of the event.
Summing up, once again – the politicization of historical topics threatens further destabilization. Ukraine and Poland have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to find understanding on other complex issues of an economic nature, laid the foundation for overcoming the difficult pages of common history with respect for the losses on both sides.
Ukraine has demonstrated maximum openness on the issue of unblocking the exhumation of the victims of the “Volyn tragedy” and excellent interaction has developed in this direction, which has taken away arguments from interested parties for inciting hostility.
Of course, mutual respect in matters of history should be the basis of good-neighborhood policy, but its radical politicization will have negative consequences for both sides. On both sides of the border, historical values, memory and sensitive issues should be treated with respect, but different views should definitely not be made the subject of confrontation.
Against the background of a common threat, Ukraine and Poland are called to become an outpost in cementing the eastern flank of the EU and developing a new security architecture based on the joint development of defense technologies.
There are still strong prospects for economic cooperation between the countries in the economic sphere, even in the most controversial – the agricultural sector, where Polish companies receive a surplus from trade with Ukraine.
Poland successfully plays the role of a strategic logistics hub with the prospect of expanding the role of Polish business in the restoration of Ukraine.
All of the above strategic-level prospects should not be destroyed due to the politicization of historical issues. In the worst case, Poland will lose the potential to strengthen its own geopolitical positions by developing an alliance with Ukraine, and Ukraine will receive a new political challenge on its own borders instead of a stable strategic partner.
Who benefits from such a scenario? The question is rhetorical.