The visit of the President of Ukraine to Poland and the dangerous tendencies of Polish politics
On December 19, the working visit of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi to Warsaw has been announced, which is intended to put an end to disputes about who among the leaders of the states should go first and where.
It is a pity that Karol Navrotsky did not find the intention to go to Ukraine, being somewhat exposed to the influence of radical political groups within his own country, but the Ukrainian side decided not to complicate the situation and agreed to come to Warsaw, putting aside sudden diplomatic misunderstandings.
Indeed, given the stable problematic aspects of the dialogue with the leadership of Hungary and Slovakia, the unpredictable prospects of partnership with the new government of the Czech Republic will further complicate relations with the President of neighboring Poland – it is not time at all.
On the contrary, it is strategically important for Ukraine to maintain communication with all centers of Polish political power: both with the Government and Parliament (which usually have greater influence on making practical decisions), and with the President (who plays an important role in issues of international activity and security).
Especially against the background of the latest trends in the domestic political situation in Poland, where the next parliamentary elections (despite the primacy in sociological polls of Donald Tusk’s “Citizen Coalition”) give significant chances for the formation of a majority by the opposition political forces of the right-wing conservative class.
Strengthening the political influence of the right-wing electorate
“Law and Justice” and “Confederation” became the fundamental basis that ensured Karol Navrotsky’s electoral support and victory in the elections.
However, apart from them, a relatively new, but unprecedentedly dangerous player appeared on the political map of Poland – this is the political force of the “Polish Crown Confederation” headed by Grzegorz Braun.
It should be noted that sociological polls testify to the systematic growth of support for the political power of the specified political figure, which reduces the gap from PiS and the Confederation by means of radical rhetoric, populism and rude actions.
If immediately after a successful performance in the presidential elections (where Brown won the fourth place), his political force claimed to pass the 5% barrier, now they are already reaching the mark of 9% of potential support.
Given their Ukrainophobic policy and radical position, which often violates the norms of moral values or even legislative frameworks, such high ratings cannot go unnoticed.
Especially if the “Confederation of the Polish Crown” will claim to enter the majority based on the results of the next elections, and such a scenario seems quite realistic.
Already now, Ukraine needs to report that the growth of the “anti-Ukrainian electorate” in Poland is a threatening trend. It is not surprising that dubious characters, traditionally considered pro-Russian agents of influence or pursuing commercial interests focused on the Belarusian or Russian market, began to unite around Brown’s political power, advocating the lifting of international sanctions against the aggressor.
The president is the leader of the right wing of Polish politics
Karol Nawrotskyi positions himself as a leader capable of uniting the Polish right hand, especially now – when it has conditionally divided between three political camps – PiS, Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown.
Such an approach forces him to focus on public requests inherent in various social groups, which leads to his harsh narratives in matters of historical or economic policy in relation to Ukraine.
Such a situation creates opportunities for representatives of the Confederation and, in part, the Confederation of the Polish crown to influence the formation of the position of the presidential office, including within the framework of building Polish-Ukrainian relations.
Due to the listed circumstances, the President of Ukraine needs to find a successful formula that will allow avoiding controversial moments and take as a basis where progress can be achieved.
Let’s start with the positive.
Prospective directions of cooperation
Of course, the Ukrainian side needs to focus on issues of security cooperation and containment of the Russian threat. Karol Navrotsky is consistent in his anti-Russian views, and it is not for nothing that he refused the already arranged meeting with Viktor Orban due to the latter’s visit to Moscow.
In this context, cooperation between Ukraine and Poland can become an effective platform for ensuring regional stability. Ukrainian experience in conducting military operations and the use of modern technologies of drones and anti-drone systems is a sector where the interests of the Polish side and the local military industry can be concentrated, and the President – as the supreme commander – cannot remain passive in this and ensuring Polish security.
Poland is especially interested in the depletion of Russian military and economic potential, which means that the presidents’ teams can successfully coordinate efforts to increase sanctions pressure on Russia, counteract the Russian “shadow fleet”, etc.
The topic of energy cooperation deserves special attention. Considering Poland’s ambitions to become the key energy hub of Europe (using American liquefied gas), the addition of Ukrainian opportunities in the field of gas storage and consumption may interest Polish partners. In addition, Ukraine will play a fundamental role in further blocking the transit of Russian energy carriers to the European market.
A dialogue on work with the USA would be interesting, given the constructive ties of Karol Navrotskyi’s team with the administration of Donald Trump. Considering that the Polish president advocates a just peace, his additional voice in advocating the common interests of Ukraine and Poland will not hurt. The main thing is that the Ukrainian side found arguments to convince him to take decisive action, since Karol Navrotsky did not demonstrate significant activity in organizing a dialogue between European leaders and the President of the United States.
Problematic aspects of the agenda
It is guaranteed that it will not be possible to avoid issues of historical politics, which are important for Karol Navrotsky (taking into account his previous career path), as well as right-wing voters. That is why it should be expected that the Polish side will require concessions or steps towards a meeting from Ukraine – in particular, the expansion of cooperation in the issue of search operations and honoring the victims of the Volyn tragedy.
For the Polish President, it is necessary to demonstrate his subjectivity, which is already manifested in the “warming up” of the information space on the eve of the meeting. Statements about “the need for Ukrainians to be grateful”, “mistakes in Ukrainian diplomacy” or “parity relations between countries that must take into account Polish interests” are traditional narratives from the president and his entourage.
Thus, the negotiations will not be simple and will require pragmatic approaches from the official Kyiv. The upcoming meeting should bring the positions of the parties closer, and not become the cause of escalation.
In addition, the conflict between the President and the Government continues in Poland, and in some places it comes to issues close to Ukraine. Recently, there have been misunderstandings regarding the transfer of MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine – despite full support at the government level, this issue allegedly remained outside the president’s field of vision due to bureaucratic complications within his team. Although the conflict will probably be resolved, and fighter jets will soon be available for Ukrainian needs, the very fact of the occurrence of such incidents is negative.
Vladimir Zelensky’s team will have to balance between the two centers of influence in Poland to avoid politicization of the visit and negative consequences.
Summarizing, it is worth noting that the pluses of cooperation between Ukraine and Poland are significantly more minuses. However, Polish domestic political circumstances dictate certain conditions that must be taken into account by Ukrainian diplomacy. Further relations may be constructive, but they will certainly require pragmatic solutions and difficult compromises.