What political game is Russia playing in Moldova and what is “humanitarian gas”?
“Humanitarian gas” has become a new term in the arsenal of Russian foreign policy as part of creating conditions for revenge in the 2025 parliamentary elections. As expected, after the artificially created humanitarian crisis in the so-called “Transnistria”, the Russian side decided to “heroically” correct the situation that was created for political purposes.
From now on, the contours of the Russian game are quite clear: Moscow is ready to bear the costs of supplying gas to the region, but in quantities that will only meet domestic needs. What is the meaning of such “gas manipulations”?
First, Russian technologists will have the opportunity to turn the so-called “Transnistria” into a showcase in the form of a “municipal paradise”, where Russian gas is supplied almost free of charge and the population is satisfied with low tariffs.
This will look like a kind of “contrast” with the “right bank of the Dniester”, where the authorities will be forced to increase the electricity tariff three times and buy it at market prices on the European market.
Cheap electricity from the Moldavian GRES, which until 2025 was stably generated on free Russian gas and cheaply supplied to the territories controlled by the constitutional authorities of Moldova, should now be unavailable, according to the Kremlin’s previous plans. A convenient scheme that suited all parties will no longer be able to operate until Gazprom agrees to restore gas supplies in full using alternative transit routes. In particular, the “southern gas corridor”, which runs through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and partially enters Ukrainian territory.
Secondly, with its actions, the Russian side sent a clear signal to the so-called “Transnistrian groups of influence” that control the strategic enterprise “Sheriff”. Their business is completely dependent on the Russian position, and therefore any attempts to reach an agreement with the official Chisinau bypassing Russian interests will seem impossible for Gushan and his team.
They often allowed themselves to act contrary to Russia’s wishes: they sabotaged mobilization, blocked pro-Russian rallies in order to prevent the region from being drawn into the war. From now on, it will be harder to “sit on two chairs” and the owners of “Sheriff” have partly driven themselves into a dead end, hoping all these years that they will be able to balance between security and Russian energy resources, the value of which is determined not by money, but by political consequences.
To implement their own plans, the Russians organized a visit by the so-called “President of Transnistria” Krasnosielsky, who received consent to supply “humanitarian gas.” However, Russia decided to take an unexpected path and resume supplies in limited quantities using a pipeline company that would buy gas on international markets with Russian money and supply it to the so-called “Transnistria”.
The political combinations of the Russian side led to strange metamorphoses: until recently, Gazprom earned money by selling gas to Europe, and now the Russians are forced to buy gas on the European market themselves to meet the needs of the enclave under their control. Despite the strange trend, the Kremlin decided that it would be cheaper to blackmail Moldova in this way.
However, in Chisinau they decided to show subjectivity: the Moldovan authorities gave Krasnoselsky a “green corridor” to fly via Chisinau and Istanbul to Moscow, but they did not give a “green corridor” so that “humanitarian gas” could go to the region based on the Russian scheme.
The enclave’s leadership was faced with the fact that, according to Moldovan law, gas purchases should be made through Moldovagaz on a commercial basis. This means that Russia will have to give money to Transnistria, and the local company Tiraspoltransgaz will have to pay Moldovagaz for gas purchase and supply services from the European market.
Will Moldova be satisfied with such a scenario?
It is clear that Maia Sandu has no intention of becoming the person on whom propaganda will shift the blame for the “energy pressure” on Transnistria. First of all, the Moldovan government offered assistance jointly with Ukraine, but Tiraspol did not respond. Later, Maia Sandu gave a clear understanding that she would not object to the transit of Russian gas if the procedure complied with Moldovan legislation. Thus, although organizational and technical issues are at the stage of coordination, the official Chisinau does not object to any options for overcoming the humanitarian crisis in the so-called “Transnistria”.
At the same time, the constitutional authorities of Moldova will not stop thinking about how to return cheap electricity to the country in order to prevent a scenario of political destabilization by the Kremlin on the eve of the parliamentary elections. The Moldovan population will be critical of high tariffs, which will be negatively reflected in the ratings of “PAS”. That is why, even if the supply of “humanitarian gas” to the so-called “Transnistria” begins, the question of organizing the work of the Moldovan GRES will remain open. That is why Russia’s political game in Moldova is only gaining momentum.