Chigadaev Aleksei: Beijing has ceased to understand Russia’s military and political goals
Interview with Russian expert China gives us answers on very important questions: what is the role and attitude of Beijing to the war, can we expect that China send lethal weaponry on Russian needs, what are the purposes of Chinese Special Ambassador to Ukraine.
Prepared by Anton Naichuk
A.N: What is a real position of China about the war between Russian Federation and Ukraine? What are the purposes of Beijing?
A.C.: It is necessary to recall the background, because we had a year when China did not take any obvious actions that would indicate that it is ready to become a side of the conflict or a moderator of future negotiations.
And for exactly one year, all sides of the war conducted both negotiations and trade with China.
The USA, for its part, threatened the Chinese, and European leaders came there and apparently, behind closed doors, emphasized the need for China’s participation and resolution of the conflict.
A year later, I believe, China came to the conclusion that something had to be done about it. Since there are no obvious movements either to the left or to the right, and Beijing has ceased to understand Russia’s military and political goals.
Therefore, everything looks very logical from the Chinese point of view.
In February, they propose a peace plan based on a ceasefire. All sides condemned it, but Mr. Zelenskyy refrained from harsh criticism. One way or another, there were also countries that welcomed this plan.
In March, Xi Jinping comes to Moscow, and Putin declares his support for the Chinese peace plan. Even then, we began to hear hints that the President of the People’s Republic of China was ready to have a telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Subsequently, the President of France visited China. This gave rise to rumors that Paris is preparing its own peace plan, which will be promoted together with China. And so, at the end of April, Xi Jinping calls Zelenskyy. That is, gradually we see development. We can criticize the fact that Beijing does not condemn the aggressor, that he is bad and thinks only of himself. But let’s go down from the idealistic level to a lower level – to money.
An important point is the appointment of Mr. Li Hui, whom everyone calls the Russian Ambassador to China. This is really true, because he was the Ambassador in the Russian Federation from 2009 to 2019. Before that, he was the Ambassador in Kazakhstan, and before that he worked at the Chinese Embassy in the USSR. He speaks the Russian language perfectly and is an excellent Russian speaker. This is exactly the person who resigned as Ambassador to the Russian Federation in 2019.
I believe that at the moment, from the point of view of the war, it is better to appoint him as the Special Representative of the Board of the People’s Republic of China for Eurasian Affairs. This is his position, which appeared just for him. Li Hui does not have his own office, cabinet or department. This is one man who represents the Chinese government and travels to all CIS countries.
This year he was in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. He visited Ukraine in the early 2000s. Li Hui is well versed in what is happening on the territory of the CIS. And, it seems to me that his appointment is a good sign and a sign of the presence of a constructive approach in this matter.
A.N.: Reflecting on Chinese decision, I had an analogy when the USA appointed Kurt Volker as the Special Representative of the US State Department, who was supposed to find mechanisms to stop the war in eastern Ukraine. Can we suppose that Li Hui’s appointment was made to search for the mechanisms and conditions to stop the war started by Russian Federation?
A.C.: Yes, Mr. Li Hui is a diplomat. In addition, he will be a Special Representative. That is, he will not have real political power. This person has a large notebook, a good knowledge of the Russian language and extensive work experience in the USSR, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan. For sure, he knows all the former republics of the Soviet Union very well.
I believe that his main task will be to get the feedback and understand the goals of the Russian Federation in this war. After all, if everything is clear with Ukraine, then a problem arises with Russia. We do not understand its goals.
However, the situation regarding Ukraine is even more delicate. In recent years, Kyiv and Beijing have had many unclosed joint projects, which cause China, if not panic, then irritation. Because they wanted to take Ukrainian technologies related to the military industry, engine construction. That’s why China invested money in it. With the outbreak of full-scale war, all these factories were nationalized, and China went to court. For now, this question has frozen.
At the same time, China maintains the status of an important trade partner of Ukraine. They were the first for 7 years, and in 2022 – the third. It is still noticeable for Ukraine. Therefore, there will certainly be a discussion of what Ukraine can now usefully offer to China. And, obviously, China will collect proposals from all sides. Mr. Li Hui is responsible for the Eurasian region. Therefore, conditionally, it is necessary to make a presentation for him on the topic: “what can we give so that China helps us?”. It will be done not only by Ukraine, but also by Russia. And it seems to me that here Li Hui will look specifically at the constructiveness of Ukrainian partners.
An important and positive moment in this matter, in his opinion, is the appointment of the former Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine to the position of Ambassador of Ukraine to China.
The fact that it is related to customs and customs legislation is a good signal for me. He must understand what is happening, what goods are going in different directions and how trade between China and Ukraine works. With him, you can talk not about political ideals, but about subjects. The Chinese will like it.
A.N.: In the context of who is more important for China: can we say that Russia has not yet done everything necessary to get full Chinese support?
A.C.: In fact, it is Xi Jinping’s recent call to Zelenskyy that shows that China is doing well in the diplomatic field. After all, there is no side that would condemn this conversation. Even Russian propagandists.
And we are again faced with Chinese pluralism. They traditionally do not “bet” on anyone there, as they adhere to the concept of “Society of one destiny”. This is a foreign policy concept under which everyone lives in a happy world of goodness, justice, beauty and purity. Therefore, the Chinese will definitely not choose either side and will not support anyone.
Let’s return to the question of money. Russia has an obvious advantage here, because Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have known each other for a long time and have held many meetings. Therefore, it seems to me, they understand each other a little.
From this point of view, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has weaker position, since he does not have a personal relationship with the Chinese leader due to an objective reason – Xi did not meet with anyone during the Covid-19 pandemic.
But, the weakness of the Russians is that Putin started the war without prior explanations of the causes, results and its consequences. Xi does not understand why all this is happening, and we saw it from China’s reaction at the beginning of a full-scale invasion. At that time, Beijing did not understand what had happened and did not even know what press release to print. This was remembered, so there will be no total support of the Russian Federation.
A.N.: We see that China trades more with the Russian Federation, specially in cases concerns oil, but with Ukraine economic cooperation is not on the highest level.
Of cause in the frames of the economic area the advantage is more with Russia, because China is of course interested in the Russian Federation, and Moscow will be more and more dependent on Beijing economically. Here, Beijing can regulate the number of purchases: increase or decrease.
Ukraine is somewhat more complicated. But, in any case, China buys a lot of food products from Ukraine, which is one of the guarantors of its food security. This is where the Ukrainian side has place for maneuver, because it can work for the future. Is President Zelenskyy, who talks about a multi-vector policy, engaged in.
Everyone already understands that in an ideal world, Ukraine should have many allies. Therefore, if you lease a field to the Chinese, then the adjacent one should be given to the Japanese, and the one opposite to Canada.
All this is not because someone is a bigger friend or partner, but because in the event of a new conflict, you need China, Japan, Canada and other countries to stand up for Ukraine.
For example, we saw how Russia blocked the supply of oil to Kazakhstan. However, everything was restored within a day, because they are friends with China. It seems that someone called the Kremlin and said: “You are insulting Kazakhstan. It is very bad”.
Therefore, friendship with Beijing is very important for Ukraine, although I am sure that Ukrainian citizens are not very positive towards China. But the society needs to be explained that it is really important.
A.N.: Can Ukraine become so important for them now that China will decide that it is time to stop the war? And will there be enough levers of influence on the Kremlin?
A.C.: I’ll start with the second one. China did not react to the war for a year and it seems that it has no influence on Putin. That’s why they don’t sell there, what else they can do to end the conflict. Beijing says it can become a platform for negotiations and also calls for no use of nuclear weapons. And I don’t understand at all why Europeans and Americans are so sure that the Chinese can influence Russia politically. Most likely, this is impossible.
However, when we talk about economic pressure on the Russians, yes, because private Chinese companies comply with them perfectly. But we were convinced that sanctions from the USA, the EU and other countries would somehow force Putin to stop. A year has passed – it does not work, because in Russia politics has an advantage over the economy.
A.N.: Can we assume that the supply of weapons to the Russian Federation is a card that Beijing will not play?
A.C.: Yes, because the Chinese remain in the rational field and because of money. Therefore, we can now observe Chinese foreign policy in the sense of finance. If something brings them, then good. And if not, they won’t do it.
Deliveries of lethal weapons to Russia would change the geopolitical landscape. And even if Europe does not want to impose sanctions, it will do so under public pressure. Does it affect the internal situation in China – yes.
Will it break the hypothetical supply of weapons – of course. We saw what the coronavirus did to China. So why do they need it? For example, Russia can hand over the Trans-Baikal region and the Far East to China. But they don’t need that either.
It should be understood that Beijing will not do anything that could harm them. Recently, we saw how the Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China Li Shan-fu came to Russia. He found out what else he could get from them. Buy something, invest in something, and simply steal something. Therefore, it is more logical to talk about the supply of weapons from Russia to China than the other way around.
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