Oleg Dunda: “Moscow will not influence anything, and Kyiv will attract new states”
Interviev by Scherbatykh Olexandr
The question of what the world will be like after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war probably arose as early as February 24, 2022. However, at first there was no talk of Ukraine’s success. A year later, the Armed Forces managed to liberate part of the country’s territory, and the International Criminal Court in The Hague issues a warrant for Putin’s arrest. Therefore, the future is also uncertain for the Russian Federation.
One of the options for what the future loss of the war will lead to is the transition of power in the Kremlin and the beginning of democratic processes. However, the collapse of the Russian Federation is much more desirable for Ukrainian society.
Deputy of Ukrainian Parliament Oleg Dunda gives his forecast for the future situation.
– For Ukraine, a necessary condition for success in this war will be not only the restoration of its territorial integrity within the borders of 1991, but also the disintegration of Russia, – says the Deputy already at the beginning of the conversation.
– Mr. Oleg, but there may also be options that Russia will remain within its borders…
– Currently, is is alone – the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state. We are in that part of history when there are only two options: either there will be a Ukrainian state and there will be no Russian Empire, or there will be no Ukraine and there will be Russia. There are no other options.
Oleg Dunda also notes that the disintegration of Russia will not last for decades. The politician predicts that everything will be completed within two years. And explains why:
– About half a year ago, a very rapid criminalization of Russian society began. For example, in the Bryansk and Belgorod regions, the number of crimes involving the use of firearms increased sixfold. Previously, no one could have thought that “Wagner” would try to collect tribute from local businesses and control these areas, and currently this is exactly the situation.
Another factor is the relentless decline of Russia’s military power. For example, they can no longer launch such massive missile attacks on Ukraine as it was before. Therefore, the empire is now very weak and should collapse in the next two years.
– Which Russian entities do you think will be the first to leave the federation?
– First of all, these will be the national republics: Buryatia, Tatarstan and regions of the Caucasus. And then everything will be like during the collapse of the USSR, when it was enough for the Baltic countries to declare their independence and move to leave the Soviet empire, as all the others immediately decided to do so. Therefore, it will be enough for Dagestanis, Buryats, Kalmyks and Chechens to declare their claims to sovereignty and show that Moscow does not have the power to tame them, as all other regional elites will consider it. And the heart-breaking process will begin.
– Recently, we heard Putin and Medvedev talking about it. Is this a sign of panic in the Kremlin?
– There is a certain algorithm of events that must happen for this. And they keep happening, one after another. This path also includes the statements of Putin and Medvedev regarding their fears about the collapse of the empire. Moreover, they themselves confirmed that the victory of Ukraine in the war will lead to the collapse of Russia. Besides, if until now they have never said that their country is an empire, now they are openly talking about it. That is, what was discussed in closed offices goes outside. They recognize this and clearly understand that the essence of the empire is constant expansion. As soon as pieces begin to break off from it, it quickly goes to its own destruction. That is why Putin and Medvedev declare that the existence of the Russian empire depends on the issue of the war in Ukraine.
Of course, we are also talking about panicky moods among other representatives of the Russian elite. At most, many of Moscow’s powerful rulers are already thinking about where they will be after the collapse of the empire and how they will protect their fortunes. And some, more adventurous, think how to get their own small sovereign country. Still others, such as Prigozhin, accuse them of divisive intentions. In particular, the governor of the Sverdlovsk region.
– In December, the soldiers of the private army “Patriot”, which is controlled by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, appeared at the front. What does this indicate?
– About the fact that even though the Minister of Defense of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, has an army of one million, he still creates his own private army numbering 20-30 thousand. The meaning of this is very simple – inside their country, the army is useless. This is also the case historically. Since the time of the Russian Empire, it has been impossible to force the troops to control some internal territories, this was done by the special services: the FSB, once the KGB and others. And the army is a force that can be sent to Afghanistan, Ukraine or another country. Gerasimov and Shoigu understand this, and they need such small units that will carry out any order inside Russia. After all, the PMCs are already outside the law, while the regular army, on the other hand, is limited by the legislative framework. And similar processes began in the fall. Gazprom is also creating its military campaign, and, for example, the so-called head of Crimea, collaborator Serhii Aksyonov. And this process is inevitable, all regional leaders who see their future and have at least some resources will create their military campaigns, which will be their private armies.
– Can they be dangerous for Ukraine?
– No, Russia will fall apart not even by national republics, but by territories that can be controlled by one or another regional leader. Whoever has more power gets more land. They will not be a threat to Ukraine, because the leaders of these republics will have so much of their own trouble in their own borders, with neighbors, Moscow, finances, that they will not be interested in confrontations with us. In addition, most of these leaders will come to Kyiv ready to conclude any agreement through Kyiv so that Ukraine will take their side and help in legitimization. They will agree to both reparations and the destruction of nuclear weapons.
– But does this carry the risk that anchor weapons will end up under the control of a dozen new states?
– This is not possible and has already been verified by history. Let’s remember the year 1991, when there were the same myths that nuclear weapons would spread throughout the planet and there would be at least 15 republics that would control it all. We know that this did not happen, and not even in 1991, but already in 1994, it was handed over to the Russians for safekeeping. This happened due to the fact that the leaders of Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan needed legitimization and help from the recognition of their countries in order for them to become full members of the world community. Also, nuclear weapons are not a suitcase that can be put in the trunk of a car and taken away. These are large arsenals, multi-ton missiles and warheads that cannot be taken anywhere without control. And it is impossible to use them, because all control centers are in Moscow. Therefore, conventionally, it is impossible to launch missiles from Kazan or Ufa, and the leaders of the new states will simply have no use for these weapons. Moreover, they have opportunities: to create their own national republic, to be president, to go to the UN, to use the raw materials available on their territories. And this situation is currently the only scenario of how nuclear weapons can be destroyed on the territory of the Russian Federation.
– But the empire can try to save itself by conducting a small intermediate war elsewhere. For example, in Moldova…
– This will not solve anything strategically for her. Besides, how will they keep Moldova? It is currently surrounded by countries supported by Western democracies. Please note that a year after the start of the full-scale war, the Russian army in Transnistria has not taken any action regarding the offensive against Ukraine. And the arsenals there are large, although the number of troops is small. If they start it, they will not be in Transnistria very quickly. That’s why they sit quietly like mice.
– Do our Western partners need the collapse of Russia?
– Absolutely. In 1991, the biggest benefit from the collapse of the Soviet empire was the Western countries, namely the future EU members. And if the USSR had not ceased to exist, there would not have been 30 years of comfortable existence in Europe. Why did some states, in particular Germany, not believe in a full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine? They are used to not having any military threat for 30 years. During this time, they destroyed all of their military forces and cut back on defense spending, and at this time only focused on developing their economies. Accordingly, if there is no Russian Federation, the funds will again be able to be directed to the development of their economies. In addition, they will receive many countries in the east with which economic relations can be conducted without any political implications. For example, when it became necessary, the EU began to actively conclude economic agreements with Azerbaijan. Let’s imagine that the USSR did not collapse. Which Baku would we be talking about then? It is the same here, since there are many states that have a lot of raw materials and are ready to trade them at discounted prices. Solving the Russian problem is the development of the European project for many decades ahead.
– But some of these territories may go to other countries: Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China.
– This issue must also be resolved in the scenario of the collapse of the Soviet Union, where there will be no room for any expansion. Because if it starts, there will be big risks for the whole world, because then everyone will start fighting. Therefore, it is necessary to conclude a pact that no one will claim the territory of the former Russian Federation.
– What is the future role of Moscow on the geopolitical map of the world?
– Secondary. Since the future Moscow state does not have any resources for development: neither raw materials nor a favorable geographical location. The latter, by the way, is available in St. Petersburg, which can become the “northern Hong Kong”. Moscow simply lives by pumping resources from its colonies. When it stops, it won’t affect anything. But Kyiv will attract these new states because it won the war, is part of NATO and the EU. And we will build relations with conditional Tatarstan and Bryansk similar to those that Great Britain has with its dominions.
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