Sociological survey: ratings of Polish parties in 2024 and what the Sejm would look like in the event of elections

A year has passed since the parliamentary elections of 2023, which radically changed the political configuration in Poland. The long period of dominance of “PiS” ended, which opened opportunities for the formation of a new coalition headed by “Civic Platform”. A significant role in the triumph of alternative political forces was played by the “Third Way” block, which at that time obtained an unexpectedly high result.

  Sociological polls show that the political situation has changed in 2024, and if the elections were held today, the parties’ performance would be different.

  What are the main trends worth highlighting over the past year?

1) “Civic Platform” comes out on top. Today, 33.3% of voters would vote for her. The state of affairs in other parties is as follows: “Law and Justice” – 32.4% of votes, “Confederation” – 12.2%, “Levytsia” – 8.8%, “Third Way” – 7.9%;

2) Although “Civic Platform” is ahead of “PiS”, the result is within the limits of statistical error. Positive dynamics for Donald Tusk’s team – the level of public support is increasing, negative – the level of support for the coalition as a whole is falling. If the results are converted into seats in the Diet, the current coalition would receive only 218, while the potential union of “PiS” and “Confederation” – 242, which would create conditions for the formation of an alternative parliamentary majority;

3) A significant drop in ratings is observed in the “Third way”. The leaders of the project – Shymon Holovnia and Vlad Kosyniak-Kamysh – are noticeably losing support, which confirms their problems in finding the appropriate electoral niche. Such a situation will put an end to the plans of the Speaker of the Seimas, Shimon Holovna, to run for the presidency in 2025.

At the same time, despite active and sometimes radical political statements, Vlad Kosyniak-Kamysh does not contribute to maintaining the bloc’s ratings. It also remains an open question regarding his political prospects. So far, he has proven himself as a reliable ally of Donald Tusk, but talking about presidential ambitions makes no sense. He will probably hope for the post of prime minister if Donald Tusk suddenly decides to become a presidential candidate, but such a scenario does not depend personally on the representative of the “Third Way” and the leader of the “PSL”.

In any case, the leadership of the “Third Way” needs to think about its own political future and strategy, because in the case of hypothetical elections, they would risk even losing a passing result;

4) “Confederation” partially captures votes from “PiS” and expands its own electoral base. Its results have been consistently increasing since 2023. Given their radical position on Ukraine, such a trend is worrisome. It should be expected that the right-wing radical party will once again become the flagship in the matter of organizing farmers’ protests and will continue to speak with anti-Ukrainian narratives. After all, it allows you to mobilize your own voters.

It is worth noting that despite the use of populist anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, the party’s leadership in the person of Krzysztof Bosak is also working on the transformation of the political project into an influential political force. The leader of the “Confederation” succeeds in minimizing the influence of a fringe group of political figures, which included various odious figures and pro-Russian agents of influence. The support level of 12% testifies to certain successes of this approach.

Thus, it is not time for Donald Tusk and his team to relax. The upcoming presidential elections may become the final stage of political transformation in Poland and consolidation of the “Civic Platform” in all branches of the country’s government. However, the drop in the ratings of the “Third Way” forces the Prime Minister to think about the future and look for opportunities to prevent the loss of power already in the next election cycle to the Parliament.

Ukraine should pay attention to the strengthening of the “right wing” of Polish politics. If we take into account that “PiS” also actively appeals to conservative ideology and shares nationalist views, actively supports farmers’ protests and shows no willingness to make concessions on controversial issues – in total, the camp of right-wing opposition forces gathers more than 44% of the vote.

Such fragmentation of the Polish population poses risks to Ukrainian interests. It should not be forgotten that the rapprochement of Kyiv and Warsaw against the background of the appearance of a common enemy does not mean that all fundamental problematic issues have been resolved. The strategic alliance between the countries is still waiting for enough tests.