What will the internal victory plan be about?

Ukrainian expert and consultant Suren Petrosian
East European Council > Analytics > What will the internal victory plan be about?

The presentation of the Victory Plan to international partners forced them to consider whether the needs and expectations of Ukraine really correspond to the capabilities and intentions of the allies. However, detailing the scope, nature and goals of international support was left an open question: what will happen if the conditional West does not fulfill all the points or implements them later than the terms set by the official Kyiv?

 A comprehensive answer should be contained in the Internal Plan announced by President Zelensky, which is intended to become a “road map” of consolidated actions of Ukrainian society and authorities. He must take into account all potential scenarios of the development of the situation and form fair conditions and rules for all citizens. At the same time, he will be expected to answer key questions that must be included in his structure.

  First, the localization and scaling of the production of its own industrial complex. Wars cannot be won without weapons. As long as Ukraine remains maximally dependent on the supply of foreign arms, we will be vulnerable and will place constant hopes on the monolithic nature of Western support. Unfortunately, Ukraine has already had an unfortunate experience when, due to various circumstances, allies have not fulfilled their obligations to transfer a sufficient number of artillery shells or are delaying the transfer of military equipment.

 If Ukraine succeeds in organizing a full production cycle of the most important military resource – drones, artillery and missiles of different effective ranges – the Armed Forces will receive reliable and permanent support in optimal terms.

  The internal plan should be focused on the development of the Ukrainian military industry and the creation of conditions to protect production from Russian attacks. In this case, our Western partners will be able to expand their investments in production, and not just transfer ready-made weapons, and Ukraine will acquire even greater subjectivity.

 Secondly, the protection and development of the Ukrainian energy industry. There is no doubt that Russia will continue its energy terror to stop the Ukrainian economy and exhaust the population. It is clear that in the conditions of war, limitations with ensuring a constant energy supply are inevitable, because the infrastructure will need to be restored after being hit by a drone or a missile. However, it is necessary to take all conditions to minimize blackouts and strengthen the protection of energy facilities.

  Russia plans to turn large Ukrainian cities – primarily Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia – into unlivable cities and lower the morale of the population. Despite all the difficulties, Ukraine cannot allow this to happen. It is impossible for Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv to remain without energy throughout the winter, as the Kremlin will come closer to achieving its own goals.

 That is why the Internal Plan should offer ways to overcome a difficult situation and clearly appoint those responsible for its implementation. If it is not yet possible to protect all objects with a powerful system of anti-aircraft defense due to understandable circumstances, it is advisable to develop the idea of ​​building additional substations underground.

Ukraine should equip its energy infrastructure in such a way that regardless of whether victory in the war will come in the coming years, the energy sector will always be ready for new challenges and threats.

 Thirdly, logistics and protection of strategic industrial facilities. With the advance of Russian troops in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, the issue of the “Pokrovske” mine management, which is the center of production of coking coal, which is important for metallurgy, became relevant.

The internal plan should provide for all possible risks and threats to economic objects of strategic importance located near the front line. Where it is possible and expedient, consider options for relocating production facilities to safer locations, and where this is not possible, prepare an emergency response plan.

  Fourth, the economy and mobilization. Despite the protracted war, the Ukrainian economy shows resilience, but a long-term plan is important in case the hostilities drag on and take into account the risks of a reduction in Western financial support. The economic component directly depends on mobilization. It is strategically important for Ukraine to find a balance between the needs of the front and the needs of production, so that active mobilization does not lead to a shortage of personnel and a slump in the Ukrainian economy.

 The plan should contain answers about the expediency or impracticality of economic reservation, the formation of clear and transparent mobilization mechanisms, the provision of full equipment and training of the mobilized.

  The main thing is that the specified plan should acquire internal legitimacy – recognition and support by society. If the Victory Plan is a request to the international community, then the Domestic Plan is a request to the population. We must be aware of the risks and problems that will await us on the way to victory in the war and the details of what is required for this.

Functionality for the implementation of each element of the plan must be clearly divided between the state authorities and they must bear real responsibility.

People’s understanding and support is key to the Internal Plan, and in order to receive it, you need to give clear answers.