Will Poland limit aid to Ukraine?
A new stage of political confrontation between the Government and the President in Poland has caused a negative resonance in the Ukrainian information field. One of the instruments of the internal confrontation was the bill on support for Ukraine, which was intended to extend important provisions of the current law, the time frame of which expires on September 30.
A lot of speculation and interpretations have already appeared around the specified issue, since it concerns particularly resonant topics. Of course, Russian propaganda is also trying to take advantage of the situation. It is important that further discussions do not provoke a negative background for bilateral interaction and do not become a tool in the hands of marginal groups that use it exclusively for political purposes.
Let’s try to provide objective answers to key questions surrounding the situation that has arisen.
Will Poland stop funding the Starlink satellite communication for Ukraine?
There are enough grounds for optimistic assessments regarding the prevention of such a scenario. Unfortunately, the problem arose situationally. The issue of financing Starlink was included in the same package as support for internally displaced persons, to which Karol Nawrocki seeks to make his own adjustments. That is why the veto covered the entire list of areas of assistance.
In practice, the President’s team does not oppose security support for Ukraine. His team believes that financing of services can continue to be carried out through a special reserve fund and there will be no threats to its termination.
The Government is also consistent in ensuring the military-technical needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Donald Tusk is interested in finding a way out of the situation in a timely manner. Therefore, it is worth expecting that the Prime Minister will initiate the necessary government decisions that will allow continuing to pay for Starlink services even without the need for the President to approve these actions.
Will Ukrainian citizens who are in Poland lose temporary protection after September 30?
Such risks are close to zero.
Firstly, neither the Government nor the President are interested in the collapse of the local economy – businesses created by Ukrainians will lose the ability to function and generate 2.7% of GDP, and Polish entrepreneurs will lose valuable human resources.
Secondly, in June 2025, the EU Council extended protection for internally displaced persons until March 2027, which will also serve as a legal basis for the Polish position.
In such conditions, despite the political confrontation, the issue of Ukrainian citizens staying in Poland will be resolved and a scenario of mass deportations or the like will be avoided.
Will internally displaced persons lose social assistance from Poland?
This issue seems to be the most problematic and filled with populism at the same time.
The President’s veto is justified by the fact that child benefits in the amount of PLN 800, benefits for medical care, etc. should keep only those citizens who pay taxes and are officially employed.
It is worth noting that such an approach will apply to the most vulnerable segment of the population, whose representatives, due to various circumstances, cannot meet the criteria set by the President.
However, they are in the minority, more than 80% of Ukrainians living in Poland operate within the framework of the Labor Code and fairly enjoy the same rights as Polish citizens, paying taxes and following the letter of Polish laws.
Even more indicative are the statistics: in total, since the moment of the Russian full-scale invasion and according to the results of the 2024 financial year, Ukrainian citizens have paid 51.3 billion zlotys in taxes and social contributions. At the same time, the total amount of social payments for displaced persons from the Polish budget amounted to 7.56 billion zlotys. If we add to the indicated amount 9 billion zlotys for medical care, in general, the protection and provision of the needs of Ukrainian citizens cost the Polish budget 16.56 billion zlotys.
It is easy to conclude that the revenues of the Polish treasury significantly exceed the expenditures.
As a reliable and strategic partner, Poland has taken on a key role in helping internally displaced persons, which requires special thanks, and Ukrainian business, in response, has contributed to a significant expansion of tax revenues of the Polish budget. Such a fair formula is mutually beneficial for everyone.
However, unfortunately, among some PiS voters and most supporters of the Confederation, there is a request to limit support for Ukrainian citizens, formed under the influence of various factors: sometimes targeted propaganda, sometimes due to the senseless actions of individual representatives of the Ukrainian community, which provoke negative reactions. Karol Nawrocki reacted to it in this way and used the right of veto.
Despite this, there are reasons to believe that the Polish Government will find a mechanism that will allow for the continuation of payments for citizens who are unable to work. Of course, provided that the reason for this is proven and justified.
To sum up, the political conflict between the Government and the President has partially captured the topic of Ukraine, which predictably caused concern. Despite everything, there are still enough opportunities to stabilize the situation, which will not lead to destructive consequences.
In any case, Ukrainian diplomacy should remember that the issues of Ukrainian citizens, support for Ukraine, or history will not be the focus of attention of the Polish political process for more than one time. Especially with the approaching parliamentary elections, which will require considerable efforts to keep the situation in a moderate direction without harming common interests.
Neither Warsaw nor Kyiv are seeking to give Russians reasons to rejoice and speculate on controversial topics in Polish-Ukrainian relations.