Withdrawal of Belarusian troops to the border with Ukraine: will another historic mistake be made?
Anton Naichuk, Ph.D., the head of the East European Council
The successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region presented the Russian regime with a difficult choice: transfer part of the troops from other directions, where they continue the offensive, to protect their lands, or accept the fact that the Ukrainian forces have established control over significant volumes of Russian territories.
An intermediate response option using “emergency troops” does not guarantee a result due to their lack of military experience and the need to form a significant group of up to 50,000 people (these are the approximate estimates of the number of troops that Russia will have to use to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region).
In such conditions, a potential way out of the situation could be the involvement of the Belarusian army in direct combat, in order not to detach the main Russian troops from the Donetsk direction.
In addition, the expansion of the Belarusian military contingent on the border with Ukraine is recorded, where heavy military equipment, volley fire systems, etc. are being brought.
The risks are growing, but should we expect that the Belarusian military-political command will cross another “red line” and engage in military clashes with the Ukrainian side under pressure from the Kremlin and under the pretext of fulfilling obligations within the framework of the union state?
Firstly, Belarusian society critically condemns such actions and this may lead to a new wave of protest within Belarus. Various signals indicate that the Belarusian military itself is not interested in participating in the war started by Russia. Such circumstances make Lukashenko himself wonder whether it is worth sacrificing his own security and pushing the country into destabilization. Despite demonstrative rhetoric and inflaming the situation at the border, it seems that he is still trying to avoid further involvement in aggression against Ukraine, as this will be the end of his political career.
Secondly, the level of risks for Belarus is extremely high. In response, Ukraine will have every right to strike military or energy infrastructure, which will not only raise the level of escalation for the Belarusian side, but also cause a complete collapse inside the country.
Thirdly, the potential entry of Belarusian troops into the war will not make us wait for the reaction of the coalition supporting Ukraine. It is hard to expect that NATO will make more radical decisions than increasing military-technical assistance, but one of Ukraine’s closest partners, Poland, retains a sufficiently powerful tool of influence that it can use instantly. We are talking about the complete blocking of the dry port in Malashevichy, which is an important transit artery for Chinese products to the European market.
The Polish leadership has already raised this issue during bilateral consultations with the People’s Republic of China during the visit of President Andrzej Duda to Beijing, and the Chinese side is not interested in such a scenario being implemented.
Fourth, the Chinese factor. At least because of the desire to preserve their own export routes, Beijing does not express optimism about the further involvement of Belarus in the war. The Chinese political establishment has intensified contacts with Belarusian colleagues, and in Minsk, the People’s Republic of China is regarded as the only prospective alternative to Russia. A new wave of escalation into a war at the expense of Belarus and the subsequent consequences of blocking Chinese trade routes to the EU through Belarusian territory can significantly reduce the interest of official Beijing in the development of economic cooperation with Belarus. It is unlikely that Lukashenko and his entourage would like such a development of the situation.
Summing up all the objective circumstances, one can hope that Belarus will refrain from making a mistake, and the expansion of the military presence will remain an element of the information-hybrid war aimed at distracting the attention of the Ukrainian military-political command.
Of course, the Belarusian armed forces are under significant Russian influence and their ranks include generals primarily oriented towards the interests of the Kremlin, which significantly increases the level of threat. However, the unfavorable foreign policy situation and China’s position, as well as a clear demonstration of the Belarusian people’s reluctance to become victims of Russian intrigues and aggression – these factors strengthen the restrained hopes that Minsk will avoid another mistake of historical scale.